These 17 predictions derive from the STF Lagrangian applied to the observational multi-messenger dataset. All documented in STF Theory V2.6. For the zero-parameter theoretical predictions (particle masses, dark energy EoS, flyby formula), see existshappens.com/predictions/.
| # | Domain | Prediction | Observation | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pre-merger UHECR | nμ∇μℝ > 0 before merger | 100% event-level; 61.3σ pair-level | ✓ Confirmed |
| 2 | Pre-merger GRB | Phase II activation | 64.4%, 21.4σ | ✓ Confirmed |
| 3 | No prompt emission | nμ∇μℝ → 0 at merger | Auger null result | ✓ Confirmed |
| 4 | Activation fraction | ~30% of events activate | 31% observed | ✓ Confirmed |
| 5 | Matter-independence | Couples to ℝ, not matter | BBH 94.5%, 14.15σ; p = 0.056 | ✓ Confirmed |
| 6 | Chirp mass scaling | Mc5/3 scaling | p = 0.037 | ✓ Confirmed |
| 7 | Final parsec gap | λC = 0.16 pc | 0.01–1 pc observed | ✓ Confirmed |
| 8 | NANOGrav feature | f = mc²/h = 9.5 nHz | Anomaly at 9.5 nHz | ✓ Consistent |
| 9 | Dipole anisotropy | θ ∝ Z; protons stronger | Tp/TFe = 2.89 | ✓ Confirmed |
| 10 | Chirality | ω×ℝ chiral; K˙/√K achiral | Flyby 100%; BBH p=0.98 | ✓ Confirmed |
| 11 | Inflation scale | r = 0.003–0.005 | LiteBIRD ~2032 | ⏳ Testable |
| 12 | Spectral index | ns = 0.963 | 0.965 ± 0.004 (Planck) | ✓ Confirmed |
| 13 | MOND scale | a0 = cH0/2π | 1.16×10−10 m/s² (SPARC) | ✓ Validated |
| 14 | Tully-Fisher relation | M ∝ v4 | Derived + observed | ✓ Derived |
| 15 | Faber-Jackson | M ∝ σ4 (3D MOND) | dSphs 98–99% | ✓ Confirmed |
| 16 | Geomagnetic jerks | τ = h/mc² = 3.32 yr | 3.32-yr periodicity (p<0.03) | ✓ Consistent |
| 17 | Hubble tension | H0 = 2πa0/c = 75.0 km/s/Mpc | 6.4σ from Planck CMB | ✓ Validated |
The STF has a structured falsification hierarchy. Each level can fail independently without affecting lower levels:
| Level | Domain | If Wrong… |
|---|---|---|
| 0: GR Foundation | Timing structure (54 yr, 3.32 yr, 71 days) | GR itself wrong (not STF) |
| 1: Core Derivation | Curvature-rate coupling, m, 𝒟crit, DHOST, cT = c, dipole suppression | Core derivation wrong, GR survives |
| 2: Flyby Validation | K = 2ωR/c, signs, scaling | Flyby validation fails, core survives |
| 3: Extensions | r = 0.003–0.005, Ω = 0.71, a0 = cH0/2π, 730 RS threshold | That extension fails, Levels 0–2 survive |
Level 3 extensions can fail independently. If dark energy density falls outside 0.50–0.80, the dark energy extension is falsified but the core framework and flyby validation survive. If LiteBIRD measures r < 0.002, the inflation extension is falsified but lower levels are unaffected.
Every prediction above uses only measured physical constants (c, G, H0, planetary rotation rates) and two STF parameters. No parameter is fitted to the data being predicted. The field mass m is derived from the cosmological threshold condition 𝒟crit = 𝒟GR combined with General Relativity (Section III.D); the coupling constant ζ/Λ is derived from 10D Gauss-Bonnet compactification (Appendix O). Both are derived from first principles — neither is fitted. The UHECR-GW observation (T = 3.32 ± 0.12 yr) historically confirmed the derived timing before the derivation existed.
For the full observational theory, see the Theory overview or STF Theory V2.6. For the first-principles derivation, see existshappens.com. For the cross-domain validation case, see Predictions & Validations.